Week 4: Regression and Model Evaluation

Dates: Feb 2-6 · Reading: Handout 4: Regression and Model Metrics

Lecture Slides

⬇ Monday slides (PPTX) ⬇ Wednesday slides (PPTX)

Full 75-minute decks, CSU-branded, with plots, code, and detailed speaker notes on every slide.

Learning Objectives

Explain regression as predicting a number instead of a category
Read a confusion matrix without fear
Define false positives and false negatives in a security context
Argue why accuracy alone can be misleading

Monday Session

Regression intuition: predicting risk scores, expected losses, or time to patch. Classification versus regression with business examples. Demo: a simple model that scores how risky a login attempt looks.

Wednesday Session

Model evaluation for decision makers: accuracy, the confusion matrix, false positives versus false negatives. The analyst fatigue problem. Trade-offs every security manager must understand. Exam 1 review.

Lab

Lab 4: Judging a Phishing URL Detector. Compute accuracy, build a confusion matrix, count false alarms versus missed attacks, and adjust the alert threshold.

⬇ Lab 4 starter notebook (.ipynb)

Download, then open in Google Colab (File → Upload notebook). Submit your completed notebook in Canvas.

Quiz / This Week

Quiz 4. Regression versus classification; confusion matrix; false positive trade-offs.

In-Class Activity

Cost-Benefit Trade-Off Under Pressure — CISA-style incident-response tabletop (small groups). Graded, 20 points.

⬇ Activity slides (PPTX) 📄 Student worksheet (PDF)

Graded in-class activity with a worksheet. Full rotation on the Activities page.

← All lecture notes · Detailed slides and notes are filled in with the lecture-builder skill.